Financial markets have gone crazy. While economic fundamentals were still relatively good in 2017, the unpredictability of political leaders has created significant uncertainty and stress on the real economy and the financial markets. Between the Sino-US trade war, the Brexit, the instability of the government in Italy, the changes of government in Austria, Spain or the possibility of new default in Argentina, politics has become the predominant element for investors. Fundamentals of corporations or valuations matter no more, the world revolves around the “tweets” of Trump and populists of all colors.
Against all odds, the beginning of 2019 has been very good for the financial markets. Shares, bonds rose between 5 and 10% depending on the indices.
Oil has risen by more than 21%, zinc has gained 9%, copper 7% and even gold has appreciated by 3%.
The optimism seems to be taking place on the markets despite the fact that experts are still very concerned about the economic slowdown expected in 2019.
Although the media continue to closely monitor developments of the covid-19 pandemic, financial markets have found another source of concern: interest rates. Indeed, investors have long been accustomed to low interest rates by central banks. In 2021, the bond markets experienced strong shocks that financiers were no longer used to. Since January 1, ten-year rates…
We remember that 2018 was a bad stock market year. The trade wars announced by the United States and the Fed's rate hikes had depressed financial markets. In 2019, a sense of optimism returned to investors following trade negotiations between the Trump administration and the Chinese. Agreements with other countries such as Mexico and Canada…
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